Navigating Scenario Building for Energy Modeling in Asia: A Review of Nations with Slower Transition Rates
The interplay between climate change and the energy crisis underscores the urgent need to address the widening gap between energy demand and fossil fuel resources. To achieve energy security, careful planning and sophisticated energy modeling are essential. These models typically incorporate scenarios or pathways that guide the transition to sustainable energy systems. However, detailed research on how to construct these scenarios is still limited. Bibliometric analysis reveals that the research is even more scarce in countries with slower energy transition rates, as indicated by their low Energy Transition Index (ETI) score. This study aims to fill that gap by exploring the factors influencing the formation of energy transition scenarios, specifically in countries with slower transition rate in Asia region. Using systematic literature review, 13 articles from India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nepal, Mongolia, Thailand, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia were thoroughly examined based on predefined inclusion criteria. The review highlights several key points: reference scenarios typically serve as baselines for evaluating other frameworks. Subsequent scenarios are developed based on factors such as demand-side efficiencies, supply-side enhancements, and technological innovation. This approach particularly allows greater room for improvement and variation in countries that lag in their transition progress. By integrating social, economic, and environmental aspects along with advancements in the energy sector and technology, energy modeling can be significantly broadened, offering diverse pathways to achieve energy security and sustainability.